The 2-5 Buccaneers have outscored their opponents, the only 2-5 team to do so

Through Week 7, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 2-5 despite outscoring their opponents 162-151, per SportStrata's standings data. That plus-11 differential belongs to a team with a losing record, and Tampa Bay is the only team at 2-5 that can say so: every other 2-5 team has been outscored.

Game by game

• Week 1: lost 27-33 at Cincinnati
• Week 2: lost 19-23 to Cleveland at home
• Week 3: lost 16-23 to Minnesota at home
• Week 4: lost 14-17 to Green Bay at home
• Week 5: won 24-16 at Dallas
• Week 6: lost 19-26 to Pittsburgh at home in overtime
• Week 7: won 43-13 at Carolina

Where the margin comes from

Add up the losses: 6, 4, 7, 3, and 7 points, or 27 combined. Add up the wins: 8 and 30, or 38 combined. Tampa Bay's season is 27 points of close losses and 38 points of clear wins, netting plus-11. No loss came by more than 7 points. Tampa Bay lost its 5 games by a combined 27 points, less than the 30-point margin of the Week 7 win alone.

Not just bad luck

The skeptic's case is that close losses are a finishing problem, not bad luck. Tampa Bay's answer is on the record: a 43-13 win at Carolina in Week 7, and a 24-16 win at Dallas in Week 5. The Buccaneers have finished games. They have just lost more close ones than they have won. The pattern is not a bad week: Tampa Bay lost by 7 or fewer in Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, and Week 6.

The caveat

The caveat: 7 games is 7 games, and a positive differential does not put wins in the standings. Tampa Bay needs the close games to break its way. So far, 5 have not.